Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February

[mb018538]

16 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Chalk and cheese 00z GFS and EC at day 8 at the surface, the former has low pressure moving in from the west, the latter has high pressure moving in from the west.

One thing in common though is the unrelenting low heights / TPV stretching from NE Canada across Greenland to Scandinavia. No sign of that breaking up anytime soon, so little chance of HLB for the first half to two/thirds of Feb.

Looks like we can probably throw the 00z GFS into the bin Nick. Far too aggressive with the low by the looks of things. Maybe a halfway house a preferred outcome.

[mountain shadow]

14 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

The main hope is a sting in the tail, and a cold March….7 days????…..I would wait until ‘within 5’….and that’s stretching it.  

 

BFTP

You were quick to boast that your forecasting method worked for January. In the interest of balance, it is only fair that you acknowledge that it has not worked for February.  

I think the rampant PV over rides everything to be fair.

[mb018538]

ECM clusters at day 8-10 certainly nothing like the GFS OP this morning.

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,potentially 3days cold 3days mild and then what ECM going for high pressure in a reasonably favourable place,while GFS crashes in low pressure.Not worth backing either at present as usual time needed to nail on outlook but interesting cold spell still possible longevity a big question mark.

[jules216]

Strong vortex composites suggest we be on the 19.02 somewhere at lag 20d, do add another 45 for reversal to -AO, just in time for Easter and May cold snaps in Europe. Once again terrible news and end Feb and March very mild speed Up vegetation for the Frost to occur after final warming in Arctic. Just exactly as past winters/springs have Been.

[Frosty.]

I have to be honest…for sure y’all can see for yourself the models don’t look particularly wintery BUT there is some cold on the 6z as there was on the 0z etc..etc..the mean is a mixed bag, however, compared to the complete dross that was January 2022..there is at least some wintery potential as opposed to zero / zilch wintery potential in Jan!…hope that helps at least a little!..…yah I’m pretty much looking forward too convective thunder showers and warm sun now… ..roll on spring! ? ⛈   

[Ali1977]

No comments, however the GFS is showing a pretty potent cold spell in 6-8 days time - no real snow modelled though.

 

The UKMO could also produce some cold weather - if it sharpens up anyway as heights to get some fair distance north 

EDIT - 168 Not as good on UKMO, probably why there’s no comments

Edited February 4, 2022 by Ali1977

[minus10]

All i can say is it seems this gfs 12z run a tad more unsettled with hp perhaps displaced slightly further sw

Gotta try and look for the positives hard though they are to find

Edited February 4, 2022 by minus10

[ANYWEATHER]

Nothing that mild in the next week from the 12z gfs.....another cold shot on Sunday and Thursday quite a potent shot of cold ,a long way off, but it's giving us a taste of Winter rather than the bland stuff we have had for weeks... Winds will be notable this weekend too and not just up north..

[Jeremy Shockey]

GFS 12z @ 168hrs

I'd take that for Friday .....it would at least feel a bit like Winter i suppose

Edited February 4, 2022 by Jeremy Shockey

[Frosty.]

I’m going to try some reverse psychology…I really hope P27 verifies, mid Feb would feel really quite springlike!    

Edited February 4, 2022 by jon snow

[Frosty.]

Compared to this dismal / lamentable winter so far, the ECM 12z operational at least shows some colder days..and nights… , for sure there’s some mild weather too but it’s not the dominant feature so it might actually feel like winter on some of the next 10 days / nights?… !  

 

Edited February 4, 2022 by jon snow

[minus10]

Lets hope Gfs/Ecm are nearer the mark re next Friday as many of the other models are not showing this..

Gfs op in middle of its ens for 11th so some support

Trying to locate ecm ens graphs on meteocile but cannot find. Be grateful if someone could point me to the right place ...thanks

[Frosty.]

Just looking further ahead towards the last third of February, the GEFS 12z mean suggests a generally north / south split with the most unsettled and coolest conditions affecting the north of the u k and somewhat drier further south.. of course this is very broad brushstrokes as the ensembles show a wide variety of weather from stormy and cold to benign and pretty mild! …I think I will be glad when this crud winter is over, it feels like it’s been over since, well…erm..December!  

 

[Penrith Snow]

You know things are bad when it's Friday evening and the Hunt for Cold thread is in fourth place on the Winter Discussion page.

Not surprised as the midday runs bring little cheer, more mild high pressure 

[damianslaw]

35 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

You know things are bad when it's Friday evening and the Hunt for Cold thread is in fourth place on the Winter Discussion page.

Not surprised as the midday runs bring little cheer, more mild high pressure 

In the meantime north and west Scotland has a snow warning for the whole weekend, winter has returned to high ground further north at least, and I would describe today as cold, albeit not the freezing cold that many in here are wanting.

The outlook sees a north-south divide, north often in cold polar air with temporary bouts of tropical maritime air - but very brief, further south will be in the milder flow for longer.

The GFS and ECM are showing a colder shot around 10th-11th, not that out of the reliable, but will probably end up with the same conditions as today, woith any snow reserved for higher ground, but we shall see. The high thereafter is a cold high at least initially and would give widespread sharp frost - it is ridging into cold air, very different to the high we had in January which arrived into milder uppers and no cold air developed within.

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

14 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

You were quick to boast that your forecasting method worked for January. In the interest of balance, it is only fair that you acknowledge that it has not worked for February.  

I think the rampant PV over rides everything to be fair.

Feb is still early…6 days in….so is Feb set?  Remember, more stormy weather early feb….cold to come latter half/third….so where’s Feb BUST???  It may be so….but post mortem later.  

 

BFTP

Edited February 4, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Scott Ingham]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Feb is still early…6 days in….so is Feb set?  Remember, more stormy weather early feb….cold to come latter half/third….so where’s Feb BUST???  It may be so….but post mortem later.  

 

BFTP

You did make a forecast yes Fred. What were the reasons/science/teleconnections behind this?

[IDO]

Not a lot to say really. Looking at the mean, in a bigger picture perspective rather than the finer detail, and there appears to be no change in the pseudo-blocked pattern.

D8-16:  

ECM D10: 

The tPV to the NW and the highs in Siberia and Pacific/Alaska boxing it in. So the status quo looks the call for medium term. With the tPV relatively strong, the cold air will seep in from the NW so within a zonal flow we should see backend colder uppers, but a NW'ly for many of us is rarely more than a damp squib. The London 850s:

The sPV has been at full blast so it does seem that any help from that quarter can be ignored. It would not be presumptuous to write off the rest of Feb for any HLB'ing?

 

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,ECM continues with the blocking scenario after a short cold shot from the northwest as low pressure has a flicker of trying to establish itself but high pressure returns building from the west .Temperatures fluctuate from a 3 day mild spell early next week followed by colder perhaps frosty weather.The Dry theme of this winter continues especially in the south.

[mushymanrob]

11 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Feb is still early…6 days in….so is Feb set?  Remember, more stormy weather early feb….cold to come latter half/third….so where’s Feb BUST???  It may be so….but post mortem later.  

 

BFTP

4 days in actually old chap (when you posted this).. lol

theres nothing to indicate theres a pattern change before mid month and probably beyond. to get a proper wintry spell the current longwave pattern would have to completely change. is that possible?..yes, but imho its highly unlikely. id have thought any major pattern change wont come until we see that TPV over Baffin weaken/shift.

 

[Bill4321]

13 hours ago, minus10 said:

Lets hope Gfs/Ecm are nearer the mark re next Friday as many of the other models are not showing this..

Gfs op in middle of its ens for 11th so some support

Trying to locate ecm ens graphs on meteocile but cannot find. Be grateful if someone could point me to the right place ...thanks

They're here, just click your location et voila! No use if you're north of York though..

Meteociel - Diagrammes ensemblistes ECMWF/CEP

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 

[Nick F]

Strong model ensemble support for an expansive and strong trop PV over the arctic driving a predominantly mobile westerly flow for the first 2/3 of February and perhaps the final 1/3 too the way the TPV shows no signs of breakdown.

Story of this winter, as would be expected with a strong TPV, is when there are cold incursions from the north or northwest modelled at range, they get shortened and the cold watered down, as the flow is flattened with the strong jet, as we draw nearer the time.  Second half of next week no exception. But before then some wintry/snowy weather for north and west Scotland tomorrow before similar conditions return Wednesday and Thursday next week.

00z EC was keen to throw a ridge over the UK next weekend before more mobile, zonal and unsettled conditions return. 00z and 06z GFS not really buying the high pressure next weekend and keeps it pretty zonal for 2 weeks. The upside with the jet further south, it will move far enough south at times to bring colder polar air across northern areas to bring some wintry interest, albeit nothing sustained. February looks more promising than January for the Scottish ski industry!

[minus10]

 

45 minutes ago, Bill4321 said:

They're here, just click your location et voila! No use if you're north of York though..

Meteociel - Diagrammes ensemblistes ECMWF/CEP

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 

Thanks Bill4321

Looking at 0z ECM ens for my location (vaguely) the op is again in middle so still being supported for the brief colder spell later next week into the weekend with a fair few below minus 5 850s. 

Gfs 6z still showing at least a cool down for this period.

This will probably get 'watered down' nearer the time but...hey ho...its at least some interest at present...

After that back to 'normal' as Nick refers to above...

Edited February 5, 2022 by minus10

[mushymanrob]

Mild squib more like...

The CET for december was 6.4c, for january 4.6c, so 11c combined... this month only needs a cet of 6 c which is certainly attainable (two years ago, which pattern is very similar) had 6.3c.

I make it that in the last 100 years the winters cet has only been over 17c  thirteen times... so the combined cet for this winter (dec jan feb) is almost certain to be in the top 20, making it one of the mildest ..