Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[MattStoke]

10 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

The fact that the Met Office just confirmed that Hawarden reached 33C today means I think that 39C is pretty much certain tomorrow, which is an extraordinary thing to write.

The GFS temps have been spot on.

ECM very low.

33’C was higher than any model showed for today.

[Cambrian]

12z GFS op - the plume heights link up with the polar high at day 3, but though the plume has passed us by, it’s very much still in business with high temperatures across Germany and building into Scandinavia. That is one hot continent!

  

At day 4, the heights keep piling north, 576 dam to the very northern edge of Scandinavia. At over 36 degrees, Sweden is on a par with Sicily. Europe is going to take a long while to cool down from this roasting. 

 

[sunnijim]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

33’C was higher than any model showed for today.

On that Basis we might sneak a 43c somewhere on Tuesday then..

I think I'm joking

[ITSY]

UKV sneaks out a 43c on Tuesday, somewhere over Leeds. Barely fathomable. 

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

On that Basis we might sneak a 43c somewhere on Tuesday then..

I think I'm joking

Or 44 because the UKV shows 43

[NTC]

1 minute ago, ITSY said:

UKV sneaks out a 43c on Tuesday, somewhere over Leeds. Barely fathomable. 

I didn't know Leeds had moved out of West Yorkshire that 43 is nowhere near Leeds.

[Snowy L]

3 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

On that Basis we might sneak a 43c somewhere on Tuesday then..

I think I'm joking

Well I think with today's charts  41C has become more likely than 40C on Tuesday so you never know.

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, NTC said:

I didn't know Leeds had moved out of West Yorkshire that 43 is nowhere near Leeds.

Looks closer to Sheffield to me. Too far south for Leeds.

[tight isobar]

Tbh rambling through the french/ channel Synoptics.. it’s quite notable that atm all seems timed to great sync- for overhead dynamics to flow into mainland uk at- good given time ( That being if you’re craving baking surrounded temperatures).. I’m hating on myself with this quote  @ nowcast scenario, But that’s honestly how it’s shaped.  One thing I think we can be confident on is.. records are going down the toilet... Anyway we’ll await supporting in the eventualitys - That lead us beyond this mind bending spell.!!!!

[stodge]

Evening all

As the "Big Hot" approaches (you read it here first!) details are being worked out.

Tomorrow looks like 39-40c at the top end but lots of local records getting broken only to be broken again (especially in eastern and southern England) on Tuesday with 41-42c looking possible along the A1 corridor (which is to heat what the M4 corridor is to snow apparently).

Some divergence on how quickly the heat exits - the higher resolution models such as Arpege and WRF keep remnants of the heat for East Anglia well into Wednesday with another 30+ day while other models sweep the hot air away overnight Tuesday into Wednesday and by lunchtime Wednesday the 850s are down to +15.

Arpege for early Wednesday looks an outlier against some of the other models but would be a third scorching start for much of south and east England:

[mb018538]

Just now, stodge said:

Evening all

As the "Big Hot" approaches (you read it here first!) details are being worked out.

Tomorrow looks like 39-40c at the top end but lots of local records getting broken only to be broken again (especially in eastern and southern England) on Tuesday with 41-42c looking possible along the A1 corridor (which is to heat what the M4 corridor is to snow apparently).

Some divergence on how quickly the heat exits - the higher resolution models such as Arpege and WRF keep remnants of the heat for East Anglia well into Wednesday with another 30+ day while other models sweep the hot air away overnight Tuesday into Wednesday and by lunchtime Wednesday the 850s are down to +15.

Arpege for early Wednesday looks an outlier against some of the other models but would be a third scorching start for much of south and east England:

That Arpege chart is a 12 hour one - so will go back to Tuesday 8pm. No way it’d be 38c at 8am!

[tight isobar]

The Canadian/and the American.. London 12z ens.. the suspicion  on the gfs snaps @ precipitation  outlandish spike- surely notes the miss dynamics mid range!?. The Canadian @ London ones are more defined.. and as the mogreps. And previous gfs supports are slowly- but notably sniffing out a chalking out of mobile domination.. and imo looking for another heat syphon!.. 

[stodge]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

That Arpege chart is a 12 hour one - so will go back to Tuesday 8pm. No way it’d be 38c at 8am!

I sit corrected and would simply comment that makes the Arpege charts almost unreadable at last to this observer.

On that basis are we still looking at a fairly rapid exit of the hottest air overnight Tuesday into Wednesday?

 

[Mark Smithy]

27 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Do we have the west France maxes to check against the forecast?   Certainly gfs maxes were decent over here today and ec a couple degrees too low on the max as is generally the case. 

GFS nailed SW France where the plume was sitting. I didn't check closely the rest of the country.

[Evening thunder]

It does appear the GFS was a few degrees too high for most of France, as suspected like Kold Weather was saying (since I think some of the reaction to his posts was a bit unfair..)

For what it's worth, my thoughts are the GFS will be a bit too high for us on Tuesday, Can't quite see 42C at least if the ECM's 850s are correct (UKV shows it too but was also too high for the plume in June), but we might still exceed 40C.

I did notice a day or two ago the GFS was showing 32/33C more widely and 34C in North Devon today, but toned it down a little.

Not to take away from how remarkable this spell still is.

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The Canadian/and the American.. London 12z ens.. the suspicion  on the gfs snaps @ precipitation  outlandish spike- surely notes the miss dynamics mid range!?. The Canadian @ London ones are more defined.. and as the mogreps. And previous gfs supports are slowly- but notably sniffing out a chalking out of mobile domination.. and imo looking for another heat syphon!.. 

You're the best.. clearly knowledgeable and with such a unique style to articulate.  I'm not really a heat lover but the one blessing is that it has brought out the winter big hitters for a summer simmer cameo..

[Mark Smithy]

4 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

It does appear the GFS was a few degrees too high for most of France,

Seemed pretty much spot on to me for the key plume area of the SW: They went for 40 and one of two 41C's and some 40 and 41C's is what we saw. And a scattering below that. Pretty impressive accuracy I reckon.

 

 

Edited July 17, 2022 by Mark Smithy

[Scott Ingham]

24 minutes ago, ITSY said:

UKV sneaks out a 43c on Tuesday, somewhere over Leeds. Barely fathomable. 

Its south yorkshire the 43, sheff/rotherham area. Leeds is north of the humber lol

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

GFS nailed SW France where the plume was sitting. I didn't check closely the rest of the country.

I think it did a much better job here ……..n Spain better. Ec on the right too low. You could argue that the area between the two forecasts was about right 
 

 

[Storm Force]

Does Anyone Know The Best Site For Clouds.  If It Is This Cloudy Tomorrow Or Tuesday I Cannot See 34 Being Reached Anywhere.

[Jon Chalk]

There's some big, dark clouds and heavy rain down Crewkerne / Ilminster way - don't remember seeing any of that sort of things in the models.

Anyone know what's driving this that the models don't show?

edit:...oh and Blitzortnung is showing a bit of lightning further West from there, between Taunton/Glastonbury...

Edited July 17, 2022 by Jon Chalk

[kold weather]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think it did a much better job here ……..n Spain better. Ec on the right too low. You could argue that the area between the two forecasts was about right 
 

 

GFS nailed the Borduex area and that was about it. Pretty much everywhere else was at least 2c too high on the GFS.

For example Toulouse having 38/39c and forecasted 41c (ECM too low by similar amount!) Nantes forecasted 40c and ending up with 35/36c.. Rennes forecasted 39c and ending up with 34c. Limoges around 32 and forecasted 38C, Poitiers 34c and forecasted 38c.

Those aren't small errors at just 6-9hrs out, they are actually quite drastic. A model shouldn't be getting 4-6c errors inside of 12hrs. Not sure why only France has struggled, as you say Spain has been much better as had the UK.

As you say BA, somewhere in the middle should be right, which probably still leads to a 40c on Tuesday anyways so its no biggie.

Edited July 17, 2022 by kold weather

[jam]

14 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Its south yorkshire the 43, sheff/rotherham area. Leeds is north of the humber lol

looks more North Notts . Blyth or Retford 

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Its south yorkshire the 43, sheff/rotherham area. Leeds is north of the humber lol

Just in the red warning area   A paltry 39/40C in the nearby amber  

ps, I know the difference isn't because of temperature. Did think they'd update it today, but alas no. We're a hardy bunch in Sheffield, no need for a red 

[Man With Beard]

7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

GFS nailed the Borduex area and that was about it. Pretty much everywhere else was at least 2c too high on the GFS.

For example Toulouse having 38/39c and forecasted 41c (ECM too low by similar amount!) Nantes forecasted 40c and ending up with 35/36c.. Rennes forecasted 39c and ending up with 34c. Limoges around 32 and forecasted 38C, Poitiers 34c and forecasted 38c.

Those aren't small errors at just 6-9hrs out, they are actually quite drastic. A model shouldn't be getting 4-6c errors inside of 12hrs.

Encouraging for those seeking records that the AROME was on the money for western France today - seeing as it is forecasting quite a swathe of 40C for the UK on Tuesday.

Along with the ECM also being up to 39C raw temps now, I'm now thinking 40C is actually the more probable outcome in Tuesday.

And where is the warmest night record going to go? Lots of contenders for that! I suspect London at 25-26C tomorrow night, but AROME has some areas under a foehn effect in the west at quite ridiculous temperatures too!