Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[Metwatch]

CET would make a run for going sub zero with the 18z I'd reckon.

[Ice Day]

At first glance, the Control is nothing special at 180, but actually is pretty cold and getting colder.  I don't think it's correct, but it could go on to deliver something of interest further on?

 

 

[damianslaw]

GFS18z yet again up to its party antics, somehow shows the UK in a no mans land, disrupts lows to the SW and then builds a scandi high, place in the box ' odd'.

[Man With Beard]

11 minutes ago, Woldsedge said:

I know the GFS looks an absolute pigs ear tonight, in fact an utter mess. However it does look on the cold side. This chart from Dec 81 also looks an absolute disaster area but it was absolutely perishing believe me, once cold becomes embedded at the surface, it can take a hell of a lot to shift it it certain circumstances 

In all honesty I sense areas north of, say, Birmingham look in a fantastic position - the cold looks like getting in, the Atlantic doesn't look aligned in a way to mix milder air to northern areas, and plenty of instability to come. Not a cert but odds are good. It's the southern half which I suspect have a gut wrenching few days ahead.

[bluearmy]

Pub run is as jaffa cakesed as I’ve known it this evening 

should really be on dry January !

[offerman]

4 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:

Why is the border between snow and rain always the M4? Is this by chance or is there a geographical explanation why this happens a lot?

this is so true, even the weather people local presenters would often say M4 corridor, and quite often it would be snow to the north of this and rain in the south quite often

[northwestsnow]

Mean is quietly upgrading ...

[ribster]

36 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

yeah but 7 degrees still on Tuesday according to that!

You need to watch/listen to full forecast. It would suggest they are not paying too much attention to GFS...

Edited January 9 by ribster

[Midlands Ice Age]

37 minutes ago, MJB said:

Easterly en route ???

 

THis is my take, but it fits the facts that we have seen develop so far...

I have used the above chart to demonstrate that the whole of the NH, not just our portion of it, is involved in the change, and not because it shows an easterly.

Just look AT IT.....

What stands out ?

It is the huge fully rounded high pressure over the Bering Ocean and the Aleutians. that one cannot avoid.

If it is not this shape but a wedge shape then it will not effect what happens, because it will block the low pressures and not force them over the top.

This high starts to form at exactly the same time   (day 4 or 5)  that the atmospheric pattern starts to deteriorate on our side of the globe.

I have explained the process before, the high pushes the cold Arctic into North America which destroys any chance that our retrogressing high has of reaching Greenland.

This is EXACTLY the same pattern that the ECM had last week for 36 hrs, before it too decided it would not be a driver and reverted back to the other models situation

I suggest that exactly the same situation will happen with the GFS, as the models are known to flounder when a strat event approaches..  (however one day it will occur, but I suspect that most models will see it happening at the same time).

Has it called it correctly? . I expect that we will find out by Wednesday evening, when it will slowly start to drop the pattern, exactly as the ECM did.

If you want some  good news then it is that most routes seem to return us (the Atlantic) to a cold scenario, but necessarily blocked, which should enhance the chances of snow.

The big (IMO) question is what has led it along this pathway, and is up the wrong path?

MIA

Edited January 9 by Midlands Ice Age

[Scott Ingham]

1 hour ago, Phil Blake said:

Could be one of these times the gfs finds a signal. Looses it and brings it back closer to range. 

I didn't really get the @Scott Ingham day thing as you had mentioned a few times the cold could land couple of days either side as you can't pin down the lag exactly. Anyway keep it up. 

I didn’t get the Scott Ingham day full stop I found it a little embarrassing as I’m just a weather enthusiast tbh Phil! But if a forecast comes off why would you not be enthusiastic about it when you’re learning. 

Edited January 10 by Norrance
Just toning it down a bit

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

That will be such a waste, just ignore the baby wetting in here, it gets to me too but you and the other knowledgeable folks in here is what makes it the best weather chat on the net

I've heard its going to be very wet around Birmingham and quite unusually snowy around Warwickshire so yes you will be getting wet and il be building snowmen with you're nephew and niece!!! 

*Don't remove it's humour between my brother and me!* 

[booferking]

Jma 18z clean northerly.

[Rain All Night]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A disaster would be a mild sw flow.

Have to look quite a long way out of the reliable timeframe to find any of that, even in my location

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Man With Beard said:

Sorry don't often post off topic, but Scott 99% of us are really enjoying your posts, we'd be delighted if you kept going, don't be put off by the jealous few

(Mods I appreciate you may choose not to keep this up but wanted to give others a chance to support the post rather than use a PM)

I really appreciate that thank you mate! That’s cheered me up a bit I did think there was a little jealousy involved but I don’t wanna stir owt else up. I’ve pm’d who I need to. Again thanks for the kind words

[Vikos]

19 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

It’s tempting mate!

I will just post in the regionals I think tbh from now on 

Come on, don’t be childish, I really enjoy your content you post here, so please, don’t let anyone make you go…

 tell you what, in comparison with the wetterzentrale forum this place is like a ponyfarm, over there we fight till blood, it’s like a battlefield between coldies and warmies right now

and still, it’s just weather…

[North Easterly Breeze]

29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Here comes the beast.. 

If this one doesn’t deliver I’m upping sticks and moving to Norway

[Scott Ingham]

8 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

That will be such a waste, just ignore the baby wetting in here, it gets to me too but you and the other knowledgeable folks in here is what makes it the best weather chat on the net

Mark thank you I just have a lot that goes on in the background in my life and this hobby is supposed to be an escape and an opportunity to learn something and then you get personally attacked ……

[Uncertainty]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Mean is quietly upgrading ...

Looks just like the eps NWS. In fact, the members are excellent at 192 and the the long term solution from the op e.g heights transferring to the ne is not w/o support either.

What a pub run btw, cold right out to the end…

Edited January 9 by Uncertainty

[Beanz]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I didn’t get the Scott Ingham day full stop I found it a little embarrassing as I’m just a weather enthusiast tbh Phil! But if a forecast comes off why would you not be enthusiastic about it when you’re learning. This place is a my d*** is bigger than yours atmosphere n i just care about the science only! I’ll get more wrong than right!!

Please keep going, if you stop then I’ve only got 4 people left posting on this thread as the others have all been blocked!

[Garthvader]

21 minutes ago, Woldsedge said:

I know the GFS looks an absolute pigs ear tonight, in fact an utter mess. However it does look on the cold side. This chart from Dec 81 also looks an absolute disaster area but it was absolutely perishing believe me, once cold becomes embedded at the surface, it can take a hell of a lot to shift it it certain circumstances 

Is there any science behind the cold being embedded harder to shift or is this a bit of a myth? ....serious question btw!

[GSP]

Must be a number of forecasts being rewritten, then rewritten again!

How on earth can you keep up with all this!

Sense says don’t tune in until Sunday now when things ‘may’ be clearer, but we won’t!

 

[Jason M]

Just ran through the GEFS at 192. 

Anyone wanting to make any sense out of them is going to be a better man than me!!

Colder than last set, but clearly very high levels of uncertainty and I suspect across all output we may see wild swings in coming days.

 

[Scott Ingham]

1 hour ago, Vikos said:

Come on, don’t be childish, I really enjoy your content you post here, so please, don’t let anyone make you go…

 tell you what, in comparison with the wetterzentrale forum this place is like a ponyfarm, over there we fight till blood, it’s like a battlefield between coldies and warmies right now

and still, it’s just weather…

 Thanks again for the kind words mate I also enjoy your content btw  you’ve brought something good to this forum this year

Edited January 10 by Norrance
Toning it down

[Ladyofthestorm]

6 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

beautiful

 

BFTP

Completely correct, beautifully predicted from the outset  by long range then GFS +260 hrs. 

18z GFS looks cold with another potential cold spell end of Jan 

6 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

beautiful

 

 

Edited January 9 by Ladyofthestorm
Somehow posted it twice lol

[Bristawl Si]

17 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:

Why is the border between snow and rain always the M4? Is this by chance or is there a geographical explanation why this happens a lot?

Partly, at least

Topography

A few miles north of the M4, from near here i.e. Old Sodbury, near the Bath M4 junction right along to past the Swindon junctions, we have the start of the Cotswolds or its escarpment.

Example: Heights go from 80m ASL in Yate, for example, to 150m plus, a mile or so 'up the road' In Old Sodbury. This happens all the way along the M4 to past Swindon.

Further East, past Reading, north of the M4, is the Chilterns, highest point 260m ASL.

Edited January 9 by Bristawl Si