Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

[I remember Atlantic 252]

17 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

Gone a bit quiet in the mads 

err, 6am I would think why, daft comment

[Guest]

43 minutes ago, RJBingham said:

Gone a bit quiet in the mads 

You know the outlook is looking milder when a) the model thread goes quiet and b) @IDO is posting

28 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

err, 6am I would think why, daft comment

Hasn't stopped loads of posts at that time during the last week.

[markw2680]

Forgive me but isn’t a week of temperatures around 4-5c and just below freezing at night with a few wintry showers along the coast just bog standard weather for the uk? And yet on here it was like a mini ice age was coming a few days ago. I get we all want extremes with the weather and that but everytime there’s a glimmer of an easterly or northerly on here it’s bigged up like no tomorrow. Listen to the more knowledgeable on here and the pros and you won’t be disappointed.

every year I almost go up the garden path but not this year lol. 
enjoy the odd frost whist we have it I’m sure it won’t be long until the next ice age chase

[LRD]

5 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Forgive me but isn’t a week of temperatures around 4-5c and just below freezing at night with a few wintry showers along the coast just bog standard weather for the uk? And yet on here it was like a mini ice age was coming a few days ago. I get we all want extremes with the weather and that but everytime there’s a glimmer of an easterly or northerly on here it’s bigged up like no tomorrow. Listen to the more knowledgeable on here and the pros and you won’t be disappointed.

every year I almost go up the garden path but not this year lol. 
enjoy the odd frost whist we have it I’m sure it won’t be long until the next ice age chase

You're right. This chilly spell is absolutely nothing out of the ordinary

[Rob 79812010]

This cold spell looks likely to deliver very cold temperatures. Averages 4 and 5 below are not 'rather cold' as has been suggested. Also, bbc forecast longer term only slightly above average temps. Longer term, models are hinting at a return to cold so for me, looking good. If El Nina backloads winter I for one am optimistic. 

[LRD]

1 minute ago, Lincs Observation said:

I don’t think at any stage it was suggested a mini ice age was coming, it was suggested a pattern of weather not seen in the Uk since 2010.

Now I know that’s not come to fruition that’s true and some maybe guilty of over expecting that said you have to agree that the model patterns are different this winter and not seen for many years.

You can’t blame people for been a little over excited in the current global climatical synopsis

But even then we saw a cold pattern 1st half of Dec only last year. And what was being progged very rarely looked any better than 2022. So, for some to say that we haven't seen these model developments early in winter since 2010 was hype

Had the same in March this year - a 3 day slushy/wet snow fest and we had predictions of the coldest March since God was a boy

[Rob 79812010]

13 minutes ago, Lincs Observation said:

I don’t think at any stage it was suggested a mini ice age was coming, it was suggested a pattern of weather not seen in the Uk since 2010.

Now I know that’s not come to fruition that’s true and some maybe guilty of over expecting that said you have to agree that the model patterns are different this winter and not seen for many years.

You can’t blame people for been a little over excited in the current global climatical synopsis

Those temps aren't bog standard winter weather. They're around 3 below. Bog standard is 7 down to 3 for england

[AderynCoch]

7 hours ago, al78 said:

Winter hasn't started yet. That is like complaining about the performance of your favourite football team a few minutes before kick off.

I consider late November here to be winter. In any case I'm just venting about the terrible luck which has continued from last winter, as is my prerogative.

[Lincs Observation]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

But even then we saw a cold pattern 1st half of Dec only last year. And what was being progged very rarely looked any better than 2022. So, for some to say that we haven't seen these model developments early in winter since 2010 was hype

Had the same in March this year - a 3 day slushy/wet snow fest and we had predictions of the coldest March since God was a boy

The question is I suppose is what is the norm in a maritime climate, in the 70’s & 80’s the view I suppose was the norm but since I’ve rarely seen a straightforward winter. Those who were around in the 50’s 60’s would say there winters were the norm, global warming and extreme global weather patterns have complicated things somewhat.

So anything that happens in our day and age is not normal in my opinion and the chase is exciting for some trying to make sense of what is going on.

you have to concede especially in this country particularly we have never had constant variables and as such no normal weather. 

[Beanz]

10 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

Also, last December the models predicted a breakdown to occur 3 days later than the beeb and the beeb adjusted and extended cold spell at the last minute. Models sometimes come up trumps

You realise that the models are used by almost all forecasting agencies?  What you describe is not a remarkable coincidence, it’s normal procedure. 

[BartyHater]

27 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Forgive me but isn’t a week of temperatures around 4-5c and just below freezing at night with a few wintry showers along the coast just bog standard weather for the uk? And yet on here it was like a mini ice age was coming a few days ago. I get we all want extremes with the weather and that but everytime there’s a glimmer of an easterly or northerly on here it’s bigged up like no tomorrow. Listen to the more knowledgeable on here and the pros and you won’t be disappointed.

every year I almost go up the garden path but not this year lol. 
enjoy the odd frost whist we have it I’m sure it won’t be long until the next ice age chase

Fair comment really, but I’m not sure it’s reflective of the people in this forum, it’s almost entirely down to the utter dross we’ve had to accept across winter after winter in recent decades.

As the old saying goes everything is relative and compared to some years, this almost feels like a mini ice age

[Rob 79812010]

15 minutes ago, Beanz said:

You realise that the models are used by almost all forecasting agencies?  What you describe is not a remarkable coincidence, it’s normal procedure. 

No, the beeb weren't picking up on it last year and didn't follow the models in that instance

[SollyOlly]

17 minutes ago, BartyHater said:

Fair comment really, but I’m not sure it’s reflective of the people in this forum, it’s almost entirely down to the utter dross we’ve had to accept across winter after winter in recent decades.

As the old saying goes everything is relative and compared to some years, this almost feels like a mini ice age

Exactly, it's all relative and that affects people's responses/ views/ behaviours. This past few days would have been unexceptional November weather when I was younger (some time ago, admittedly!) but in the past few years - a good few years! - it's understandable that for some folk, it's notable. A 'normal' end to autumn in times gone past, something to get the appetite whetted for winter these days. Each to their own...personally, I've enjoyed something a bit more seasonal at last, after a very warm autumn overall. Here's to a proper winter! 

[Beanz]

27 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

No, the beeb weren't picking up on it last year and didn't follow the models in that instance

If you say so.  Noting that the BBC don't do their own forecasting, it’s provided by Meteo - they just broadcast the information they are given.  

Edited November 29, 2023 by Beanz

[SussexSnowman]

3oc here today. Brisk to say the least. Cloudy, but no chance of meatballs. Looks like this dry crisp spell ends Wednesday. It's a most welcome spell of dry weather and my hope is it continues even if it warms up a tad. Did like the Deep Dive video by the Met yesterday where Alex Deakin did a good little piece on the complexity of forecasting snow. 

[Rob 79812010]

Yeah. Think all these models and forecasting still confuse me

[SussexSnowman]

Aye. I doff my cap to them being able to articulate concisely what the models mean  I do find the deep dives really interesting. Never thought I'd watch the Met on YouTube daily 

[mathematician]

A thing that always amuses me is the amount of people who say "let's get the cold in first, once it's here it's very hard to displace it "

 

Like we lived in Canada...  It literally takes ONE DAY for the uk to go from, say -2, to 12!!!   It's hilarious

[danm]

I was never invested in this cold spell, having been burned so many times before. Two decades of model viewing has taught me that until we get to within a few days max, nothing is close to being guaranteed, at least from a snow perspective. 

Too many variables are at play to deliver snow on these Isles. Once one variable downgrades we often see the whole lot collapse like a pack of cards. 

The positive is that it is cold, and will remain so for the next 4/5 days, and a lucky few might see the odd wintry flurry, but unlikely to be too much more than that over the next 10 days. Would love to be proved wrong. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by danm

[danm]

If anyone wants to see snow, check out the live webcam at the Ptarmigan restaurant near the summit of Cairngorm:

Live Webcams - Cairngorm Mountain

WWW.CAIRNGORMMOUNTAIN.CO.UK

---

Our live webcam images update every 60 seconds, refresh your browser to ensure you are viewing the latest image.

Edited November 29, 2023 by danm

[SunnyG]

2 hours ago, markw2680 said:

Forgive me but isn’t a week of temperatures around 4-5c and just below freezing at night with a few wintry showers along the coast just bog standard weather for the uk? And yet on here it was like a mini ice age was coming a few days ago. I get we all want extremes with the weather and that but everytime there’s a glimmer of an easterly or northerly on here it’s bigged up like no tomorrow. Listen to the more knowledgeable on here and the pros and you won’t be disappointed.

every year I almost go up the garden path but not this year lol. 
enjoy the odd frost whist we have it I’m sure it won’t be long until the next ice age chase

It's alsoo very likely that it's been exaggerated: even the -4 and -5, I'll believe it when I see it.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

13 hours ago, TheOgre said:

This country can be bloody boring sometimes! I reckon it’ll be 2-4 sunny and frosty days, then cold rain then back to mild rain. Then that’ll be your lot until the next cold spell. Hope I’m wrong.

Standard maritime climate December stuff then

[In Absence of True Seasons]

2 hours ago, LRD said:

You're right. This chilly spell is absolutely nothing out of the ordinary

Not out the ordinary, but certainly below average temps, by several degrees C in London, and considering alot of years these days late November and early December barely gets into single digit temps and remains lingering in the 10-13c max ranges, it is a proper cold snap.

[Methuselah]

We might moan about the Beeb and the Met. Office, but GBeebies is surely setting the bar at an all-time low: 

 

[johncam]

47 minutes ago, danm said:

If anyone wants to see snow, check out the live webcam at the Ptarmigan restaurant near the summit of Cairngorm:

Live Webcams - Cairngorm Mountain

WWW.CAIRNGORMMOUNTAIN.CO.UK

---

Our live webcam images update every 60 seconds, refresh your browser to ensure you are viewing the latest image.

Even that will gone soon , used to love winter as an older member you were always guaranteed at least one good cold spell with snow on the ground and a few transient shorter spells,  now it's high 5's all round if we get a few frosts. Back in the day 8C was termed mild in winter now some think this is cold , sad times. Forgive the ramblings of an old git