Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January

[bobbydog]

Not such a good run on the GFS but hold on to those toys for now....

[johncam]

Absolutely no consistency from GFS at all 

[bobbydog]

Ok... commence toy launch sequence....

 

(It actually doesn't end badly but it's a long slog to get where it's going...)

[bobbydog]

3 minutes ago, johncam said:

Absolutely no consistency from GFS at all 

The divergence happens around 144hrs

the low sinking into Europe doesn't have enough energy to keep going and the jet then fires up and flattens our HP.

[TSNWK]

This 12z was better short term up to 168 with colder air further west and heights a bit higher.. then poorer than 06z with heights not going north east..and sinking..  instead 

Normal ebb and flow and I personally prefer upgrades early and downgrades later as more time to correct back

 

Edited January 15, 2022 by TSNWK

[Battleground Snow]

Gefs mean and control have potential at day 10,

lots of -ao ensembles in there, expect a cluster of sub -10 runs late on in the graph

[Ali1977]

Lots of very good ENS, even by day 10

[Cambrian]

At 174h is just about the peak of the high pressure for our millibar-drenched isles in the reliable / semi-reliable on the 12z GFS, 1040mb+ somewhere in the Irish midlands. 

Let’s zoom in dudes and get really high…..wow…..1042mb

Though the record appears safe, a very similar place to where we were two years ago to the week, with similar wider factors at play. This is a great little article written by Dr Stephen Burt from the University of Reading. 

London just broke a 300-year-old weather record – but you probably didn’t even notice it - Connecting Research

RESEARCH.READING.AC.UK

---

A London weather record was broken recently making for an exceptionally crisp, clear winter day – but you probably didn’t notice it, explains Professor Stephen Burt in a recent post...Read...

Even more great because even I could understand it. 

Nippy enough later that night. Pleasant chilly days. 

  
 

Yeah man. 

[Ali1977]

Day 10s, not deep FI 

[Lukesluckybunch]

very topsy turvy these gfs runs,2 0r 3 in a row showing very wintry weather around 240 onwards..the latest 12z run not so good for cold! lets hope the ECM can give us somthing encouraging..its a right off again ECM very flat 

Edited January 15, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
adding

[damianslaw]

Whilst a very slow evolution the GFS 12z is the eventual direction the high could well be heading.. sinks south a little allows a westerly but crucially not far south enough and with maintenance of a fairly amplified flow as has been the case for weeks it nudges west bit by bit with the jet on a NW-SE trajectory and deep scandi trough into Europe. It's not a route to wintry nirvana but a path to something notably more wintry.

[northwestsnow]

EC is trending flatter this evening...

[Johnp]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is trending flatter this evening...

That’s a bit of a shocker. A long way to cold if that transpires. At least with the mid lat high there’s a chance for it to retrogress when the chance arises. 

[Staffmoorlands]

Quite like both the GFS and ECM this evening as they both suggest wintry opportunity’s from the North West. Nothing too cold or prolonged but will be better than this current dry spell

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Quite like both the GFS and ECM this evening as they both suggest wintry opportunity’s from the North West. Nothing too cold or prolonged but will be better than this current dry spell

The GFS does but the ECM most definitely does not. It may do if it went out further because the GFS doesn't within 240 but but does thereafter but that would be pure speculation.

Edited January 15, 2022 by feb1991blizzard

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, Johnp said:

That’s a bit of a shocker. A long way to cold if that transpires. At least with the mid lat high there’s a chance for it to retrogress when the chance arises. 

that stinking PV,what a spoiler!

[Mark Smithy]

Interesting. The ECMWF calls time on the High Pressure. Has it spotted something the others haven't?

[Lukesluckybunch]

so guys its looking like the final few days of january for a chance of somthing very cold!..pretty depressing ouput if you ask me.the PV is to strong and looks to remain that way in just rotating around the greenland area throwing cold air into canada and north america.we need a split vortex here putting some cold into northern and eastern europe,then hpefully we can tap into some it!..currently it looks a big ask

[sundog]

7 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

Interesting. The ECMWF calls time on the High Pressure. Has it spotted something the others haven't?

According to the ecm even the hp gets bored hanging about lol. Cant ridge north due to too much energy up there and says to hell with this lol.

[Hammer50]

With what is happening on the far side of the world in Tonga does anyone think this could mess with current weather models.

[chris pawsey]

15 minutes ago, Hammer50 said:

With what is happening on the far side of the world in Tonga does anyone think this could mess with current weather models.

Absolutely. What has happened there proper shakes the dice imo, from an atmospheric point of view! 

Double six please  

Edited January 15, 2022 by chris pawsey

[Lukesluckybunch]

any news on the ECM ens...was it a mild outlier?

[swfc]

15 minutes ago, Hammer50 said:

With what is happening on the far side of the world in Tonga does anyone think this could mess with current weather models.

Not sure but Paul Hudson has tweeted that he's picked up the barometric pressure rise from the blast 14 hrs after the event. His location is leeds

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

any news on the ECM ens...was it a mild outlier?

In a word no

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Not sure but Paul Hudson has tweeted that he's picked up the barometric pressure rise from the blast 14 hrs after the event. His location is leeds

In a word no

haha shock horror

[Blessed Weather]

Could we not discuss the Tonga eruption in this thread please. There's lot's of discussion going on over in the Volcanic Activity thread, including possible impacts on weather and climate. Thank you.