Summer 2022 Chat

[Summer Sun]

 

[summer blizzard]

14 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:

So looking at that chart - if a storm was to form off Cape Verde or anywhere else in Atlantic basin and manages to become a named storm/ hurricane and roll up the ESB and the Jet stream fired up and pushed it towards us- With those SST’s would it be able to maintain  its strength?? Looks a very warm ocean run towards the UK. 
 

How quiet is this Hurricane season by the way?? I can’t remember the last time the Atlantic was so inactive. Maybe more from September thru till November but does seem eerily quiet currently
 

MNR

Regarding the hurricane season things are dull but not yet unprecedented. 

2017 did not see its first hurricane until August 9th. It is by ACE one of the most active on record. 2016 was August 2nd, 2015 was August 18th, 2013 was September 8th (also a few years into Nina and -PDO), 2011 was August 21st, 2009 was August 15th, 2007 was August 13th, 2006 was August 24th, 2002 was September 8th, 2001 was September 1st, 2000 was August 3rd.

You can see that whether the season came out average or not, producing nothing more than a bit of rubbish before September is not actually that abnormal. 2002 and 2013 were noticeably slow to do anything interesting.

[mb018538]

After a brief 10 minute shower earlier this morning, it's now just another warm and bright summer 2022 day. 25c with a gentle breeze, perfect really.

[stainesbloke]

Another hot and humid day here in Prague (33°C) with very hazy skies. Warnings are out for intense thunderstorms this evening and overnight, keeping everything crossed  

Edited August 18, 2022 by stainesbloke

[danm]

A warm day with sunny spells, 27°c. 

[emmett garland]

43 minutes ago, minus10 said:

What intrigues me is the rain spike...showing at 20mm on weather outlook .com and a massive 35mm on wetterzentrale...for the same chart?

Thats the biggest i have ever seen but how can it be different? Mean still pretty good though till end of the month...

 

i feel like an idiot but why cant i quote in the Scottish thread

[emmett garland]

2 minutes ago, emmett garland said:

i feel like an idiot but why cant i quote in the Scottish thread

puffy made me laugh ..Thats all I wnted to say

[Paul33]

12 hours ago, davehsug said:

In the meantime, what looked like a decent week next week, is quickly slipping down the toilet, especially away from the South & East.

I take it by "decent" then, like most of the country, you mean cool, comfortable nights, no more heatwaves ...... and lots of rain ?

[SunSean]

Thinking of deleting the met office app, they've been consistently dreadful this year for anything over 18 hours away lol. They had today down as being sunny most of the day but come this morning  they've changed it at the last minute to cloudy all day. How can you get it so wrong just a day earlier. I can see on the satellite that the Midlands will be enjoying a gorgeous sunny day today but down here is a boring grey day lol.

[MP-R]

9 minutes ago, SunSean said:

Thinking of deleting the met office app, they've been consistently dreadful this year for anything over 18 hours away lol. They had today down as being sunny most of the day but come this morning  they've changed it at the last minute to cloudy all day. How can you get it so wrong just a day earlier. I can see on the satellite that the Midlands will be enjoying a gorgeous sunny day today but down here is a boring grey day lol.

After a glorious start, it has also turned into a complete cloud fest here. You’re not alone.

[Weather-history]

Manchester Summer Index

1976 301

1995 298

1983 278

1955 277

1911 274

2018 272

1984 271

1959 269

1975 268

1949 267

1989 262

2022 257 (up to 18th Aug)

1947 255

1933 251

[davehsug]

1 hour ago, Paul33 said:

I take it by "decent" then, like most of the country, you mean cool, comfortable nights, no more heatwaves ...... and lots of rain ?

Whilst I'm no fan of the extreme heat, I would never complain about summery weather in, well, summer. Just as I'm sure the army of cold fans wouldn't complain about wintry weather in winter. I'm just an ordinary person who is going away for a few days next week and is very disappointed that after weeks of working in gorgeous weather, now may have to endure poor conditions.

Edited August 19, 2022 by davehsug

[richie3846]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

After a glorious start, it has also turned into a complete cloud fest here. You’re not alone.

Yes the met office cloud forecast for specific locations is completely hopeless in every way. The accuracy is very low and the standard default seems to be light cloud, which just about covers the lot. It cannot ever be relied on, never ever, it's so bad in fact that if want to know the likely sunshine levels I build up my own best guess based on other information, such as airmass, the text and video forecasts, and previous experience (the hunch lol). 

 

It appears that there simply isn't the technology available yet, that can accurately forecast cloud levels on an island with constantly shifting winds. Local knowledge and a glance at the sky may actually be more accurate than the forecasts produced by the met.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

4 hours ago, SunSean said:

Thinking of deleting the met office app, they've been consistently dreadful this year for anything over 18 hours away lol. They had today down as being sunny most of the day but come this morning  they've changed it at the last minute to cloudy all day. How can you get it so wrong just a day earlier. I can see on the satellite that the Midlands will be enjoying a gorgeous sunny day today but down here is a boring grey day lol.

Still not as bad as Inaccuweather. 

[damianslaw]

11 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Manchester Summer Index

1976 301

1995 298

1983 278

1955 277

1911 274

2018 272

1984 271

1959 269

1975 268

1949 267

1989 262

2022 257 (up to 18th Aug)

1947 255

1933 251

Expect that may be as high as it goes. The next 6 days at least relatively poor, which then leaves a week still but not expecting anything exceptional month end around here. 

[Summer8906]

I guess this August may end up similar to Aug 2016 in the overall stats? Difference between the two being that the hot, sunny days were spread throughout the month in 2016 (and separated by cloudier periods) while this year (by the latest forecasts) they were all concentrated into a 10-day period (5th-14th) while it looks like the second half of the month will be, rather like the last 12 days of July (from what I gather) was, distinctly cloudy.

Whatever, in the UK (currently out of the country still), it looks like we are still awaiting an August with a really prolonged fine spell of the 1995, 1991 or 1981 type.

Back in early September. As I am in Greece right now, I'm hoping for a fine, warm autumn in all honesty (a cool, dull, wet September in particular will be a real shock to the system), although the Met Office is suggesting a settled spell in early September which breaks down just when I arrive back Still, time for it to change.

Edited August 20, 2022 by Summer8906

[SunSean]

Eww the forecast for next week keeps on being downgraded to oblivion. Literally the only decent sunshine were gonna have for the foreseeable is a few hours this morning until those diabolical grey skies take charge. And to think, some people were wishing those beautiful blue skies away lol. Can't comprehend how people enjoy a dismal day of grey grot and no sunshine.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, SunSean said:

Eww the forecast for next week keeps on being downgraded to oblivion. Literally the only decent sunshine were gonna have for the foreseeable is a few hours this morning until those diabolical grey skies take charge. And to think, some people were wishing those beautiful blue skies away lol. Can't comprehend how people enjoy a dismal day of grey grot and no sunshine.

Wed looking a write off, mon and tue not too bad

[SunSean]

19 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Wed looking a write off, mon and tue not too bad

Round my area, Wednesday is actually looking the better day- partly sunny, but every other day is pretty much forecast 100% cloud cover. I'm not even bothered about heat either, just after some more sunshine but its looking bleak lol.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

4 hours ago, SunSean said:

Eww the forecast for next week keeps on being downgraded to oblivion. Literally the only decent sunshine were gonna have for the foreseeable is a few hours this morning until those diabolical grey skies take charge. And to think, some people were wishing those beautiful blue skies away lol. Can't comprehend how people enjoy a dismal day of grey grot and no sunshine.

I think the majority were wishing away the heat, not the sunshine. It doesn't have to be hot for it to be sunny.

20-25 Celsius would be lovely on a sunny day. 

On the other hand, many areas could do with some meaningful rain.

Edited August 20, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, SunSean said:

Round my area, Wednesday is actually looking the better day- partly sunny, but every other day is pretty much forecast 100% cloud cover. I'm not even bothered about heat either, just after some more sunshine but its looking bleak lol.

Sunshine levels statistically diminish rapidly through August. Another reason im not a fan of August especually second half. April often far sunnier. By mid August we enter  the wetter duller half of the year. 

Edited August 20, 2022 by damianslaw

[Stewart M]

4 hours ago, SunSean said:

Eww the forecast for next week keeps on being downgraded to oblivion. Literally the only decent sunshine were gonna have for the foreseeable is a few hours this morning until those diabolical grey skies take charge. And to think, some people were wishing those beautiful blue skies away lol. Can't comprehend how people enjoy a dismal day of grey grot and no sunshine.

Couldn't give a stuff about sunshine, it's rain I'm looking for, and for the heat to stay away.  The last couple of days have been a big relief and personally I hope we continue into autumn in the same vein, with some much-needed rain thrown in too.

[SunSean]

46 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Sunshine levels statistically diminish rapidly through August. Another reason im not a fan of August especually second half. April often far sunnier. By mid August we enter  the wetter duller half of the year. 

Yeah, the stats back that up also. We've had many sunny April's lately but not so many sunny August's. 

[SunSean]

55 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I think the majority were wishing away the heat, not the sunshine. It doesn't have to be hot for it to be sunny.

20-25 Celsius would be lovely on a sunny day. 

On the other hand, many areas could do with some meaningful rain.

Yes definitely. I enjoy heat but its not massively important to me. I'd actually rather have a clear day of 16 degrees instead of 36 degrees and 80% cloud cover. 

[MP-R]

Sunny and breezy the order of the day today. Only 21 degrees though so feeling fresh.