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Hi everyone, new topic for the 2024 US tornado season. Yesterday the first us tornado of the year struck Fort Lauderdale in southern Florida likely causing EF0-EF1 damage. 2024 will be an interesting year, looking ahead we seem to stay in EL Nino till around March/April before transitioning into a neutral state by May, could even be in a La Nina by the end of June, this will have a large impact on severe weather positioning within the US. Many believe the US will have a close to average tornado year with the most tornadoes being either in the southern plains or the deep south depending on jet positioning.   Something i dont like at the momen

A dedicated thread for moans and ramps and banter about either the weather or the model output. (But not for moaning about other members!)  

A fresh thread, and hopefully a fresh start after things went a bit off on a tangent in the previous thread.  No big sermon here, but we really do need to make every effort to stay within the forum and model thread guidelines (below) in here. And within that, please, please, please don't respond to comments which are clearly outside of those guidelines. Please just report them and move on so as not to give any iffy, inflammatory comments the oxygen that they do not deserve.  The community guidelines, have recently been updated - so please have a read of them if you haven't yet. We also have a separate set of guidelines specifically for the model output threads t

Heavy driving rain and dark by 3pm horrid day ☔️ 

April CET statistics  __ the most recent 43 values are shown in three groups (14,14,15) -- bold warmest, italic medium values, underlined coolest) __ the 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 averages are in bold italics. All data now v2.0.1.0 CET.  19.7 ... warmest April daily mean (29th, 1775) 11.9 ... warmest April (2011) 11.3 ... 2nd warmest April (2007) 10.6 ... 3rd warmest April (1865) 10.5 ... tied 4th warmest April (2020) and 1943 (5th in 2 decimals) 10.3 ... t6th warmest Aprils (tied 1798, 1893, 1987, 2014) (order 6, 8, 9, 7 in two decimals) 10.2 ... t10th warmest 1794, 1796, 1944 (order 12, 11, 10 in two decimals) 10.1 ...

Wow! the sky has gone purple! Changed in seconds, at last it's actually stopped raining.

Good morning and Happy Easter to all. If we can say that the UK has a storm season then it likely runs from April 1st to September 30th, but the UK weather does not stick to any rules. This last week has seen thunderstorms with lightning displays, large hailstones and gusty winds along with some amazing mammatus displays. Thank you to all that shared your pictures. Let's hope this coming season offers up some of what we want to all of us. So here we go, it's April 1st but I am not going to offer up any April fools jokes 😉😝.  Today actually offers its own risk of some thundery weather, albeit a small one. Numerous heavy showers are likely to break out today

Welcome to the Ronseal of model discussion threads - it's just model discussion, no frills, no snow watch and definitely no temper tantrums.  If you want to talk about all the models in relation to all things snow during the coming days, the Snow Watch model thread is the place to go: This thread is also acting as the model highlights thread, so when posts are marked as insightful by enough people in the snow watch thread, they'll be copied in here to, hopefully, add to the discussion.  As ever, please keep it friendly and please keep it strictly on-topic.

Derecho I've lost faith in using the MJO passage through the phases as precursor to changes in weather patterns towards cold or mild. Following 'warm phases' of 3-4 in early Jan we saw a 2-week cold spell, we've seen the MJO recently pass through 6 and now loitering and weakening through 7, but very little amplification in the upper flow at mid-to-high latitudes to show for it in the models. What high lat blocking that has been showing and will likely continue to be shown down to changes in the strat, i.e. downwelling of weakening winds. And I don't get this obsession with using AAM as tool on its own, it seems that when ever it rises all falls we are told to look ou